Signals From VARA Pro Q1/2025

Estimates versus Actuals

The positive surprise in sales remained at a high level: 56% of companies reported better-than-expected sales figures. On the earnings side, 64% of our companies exceeded bottom-line expectations, a significant improvement compared to Q4, when only 49% managed to do so.

Sales and Earnings Growth

Twelve-month top-line growth expectations have risen from around 5% to 8%. Despite this increase in optimism, actual sales growth remains subdued at just 1%.

Expectations for bottom-line growth have also climbed, now reaching 19%. However, actual earnings growth lags behind at 3%, only slightly down from 4% in Q4.

TTM (Index) and Earnings Growth

Earnings and sales growth currently appear to be in balance. However, it's worth noting that sales growth has remained flat since early 2023.

The overall situation is improving for most companies, both in terms of current performance and future outlook. Still, the rise in expectations is becoming more concentrated among fewer companies.